Multiduration critical rainfall prediction model for typhoons and non-typhoon rainfall landslides

Abstract

The statistical determination of critical rainfall is a commonly used method for the early warning of landslides. The typhoon rainstorm in southeast coastal areas is different from the general rainfall, and often cause landslide disasters, thus threatening the safety of people's property in coastal, in order to establish the critical rainfall prediction model of typhoon and nontyphoon rainfall landslides, taking Lishui City, Zhejiang Province, as an example, based on the statistics of both rainstorm and nontyphoon-included landslides and rainfall during 2010-2020. The relationship between the occurrence probability of landslides and effective rainfall in Lishui City was constructed. A multiduration critical rainfall prediction model was proposed, and the results of typhoon and nontyphoon prainfall landslide prediction models were compared and analysed. The results show that the difference in rainfall type and rainfall between nontyphoon rainfall and typhoon rainstorms is the main reason for the difference in the two types of prediction models in Lishui City. The critical rainfall value method and effective rainfall days determined by the multiduration prediction model are more consistent with the prediction of rainfall landslides in Lishui City, and the prediction accuracy is higher than that of the traditional correlation analysis method.The research results have theoretical significance for the development of the regional rainfall-induced landslide predictive model, and have important practical significance for the early warning of the flood season landslides in the southeastern coastal areas of my country.

Keywords

• rainfall-induced landslide
• typhoon
• landslide prediction model
• multiduration critical rainfall
• effective rainfall