Crop production in Russia 2030: Alternative data of the development scenarios

Abstract

This article reveals the main indicators of scientific and technological development (gross yield, yield, acreage and average annual prices for crop products) of the crop industry in the long term. Using these indicators, two development scenarios “Technological adaptation” and “Technological breakthrough” of the crop production sector until 2030 were identified. Scenarios for the development of the crop production industry in Russia until 2030 were constructed by means of a correlation and regression analysis. The objectivity of using the obtained regression equations is confirmed by the strong relationship between factors and gross yield. These factors are the basis for determining the gross yield of each crop in 2030. The article also presents the forecast of export volumes of agricultural crops in Russia. Predicted indicators of the Russian crop industry indicate an increase in the volume of seed and organic products. Keywords: Crop production, Seed growing, Organic farming, Scenarios, Gross yield, Productivity, Sown area, Forecasting