Short term generation forecast for photovoltaic farms connected to the National Power Grid

Abstract

A very short term forecast (15 min) of photovoltaic generation from solar farms connected to the National Power Grid in Cuba is presented. The approach described here is based, on one side, on the Heliosat II method for the estimation of solar radiation from meteorological satellites visible images and on the other, on the Cloud Motion Vectors algorithm, which allows to produce an image extrapolated to a near future time based on two consecutive images already received correlation of 0.835 between predicted and reported values in the farms and a mean square error of 0.51 Mw.

Keywords

• Cloud Motion Vector
• Solar Radiation
• Forecasting
• Short Term Forecast
• Satellite Images