Addressing the Lassa Fever Epidemic in West Africa: A Mathematical Modelling Approach

Abstract

Lassa fever is a viral haemorraghic fever, accounting for about 5,000-10,000 deaths annually. The disease is endemic in West-Africa with seasonal epidemics. We proposed that with the use of mathematical modelling studies, we can predict accurately when the outbreak will likely occur by computing the infectivity rate, weather patterns and population of rodents. With this, adequate preventive measures and public health control interventions can be put in place to prevent the outbreak. This necessitates the need for more policy-relevant mathematical modelling studies on Lassa Fever, starting with building capacity in sub-Saharan Africa, where the disease is prevalent.

Keywords

• lassa fever, mathematical modelling, west africa, mastomys