Heliyon (Feb 2024)
Addressing energy challenges in Iraq: Forecasting power supply and demand using artificial intelligence models
Abstract
The global surge in energy demand, driven by technological advances and population growth, underscores the critical need for effective management of electricity supply and demand. In certain developing nations, a significant challenge arises because the energy demand of their population exceeds their capacity to generate, as is the case in Iraq. This study focuses on energy forecasting in Iraq, using a previously unstudied dataset from 2019 to 2021, sourced from the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity. The study employs a diverse set of advanced forecasting models, including Linear Regression, XGBoost, Random Forest, Long Short-Term Memory, Temporal Convolutional Networks, and Multi-Layer Perceptron, evaluating their performance across four distinct forecast horizons (24, 48, 72, and 168 hours ahead). Key findings reveal that Linear Regression is a consistent top performer in demand forecasting, while XGBoost excels in supply forecasting. Statistical analysis detects differences in models performances for both datasets, although no significant differences are found in pairwise comparisons for the supply dataset. This study emphasizes the importance of accurate energy forecasting for energy security, resource allocation, and policy-making in Iraq. It provides tools for decision-makers to address energy challenges, mitigate power shortages, and stimulate economic growth. It also encourages innovative forecasting methods, the use of external variables like weather and economic data, and region-specific models tailored to Iraq's energy landscape. The research contributes valuable insights into the dynamics of electricity supply and demand in Iraq and offers performance evaluations for better energy planning and management, ultimately promoting sustainable development and improving the quality of life for the Iraqi population.
