Triggered creep rate on the Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault

Abstract

The Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault is one of the rare places in the world where aseismic creep event has been observed. This segment was ruptured during both the 1944, <i>M_w</i>=7.2, Gerede and 1951, <i>M_w</i>=6.9, Kursunlu earthquakes. After these earthquakes, the segment has not experienced a major earthquake anymore. Starting from 1957, many studies using different technologies have been carried out to determine the creep rate of the segment. All these studies until 2002 revealed that the creep movement of the segment slowed down. The new observation campaign of the Ismetpasa geodetic network shows that the Ismetpasa segment has ceased the slowing trend and started to gain speed. This might be interpreted as an increasing earthquake risk for this segment.