Changes in Northern Ireland Society and Factors in Favour of Reunification: Beyond Identity and Religion?

Abstract

This paper summarises some of the main changes in Northern Irish society since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, both at the electoral level and in religious and national identities, as well as in preferences over constitutional future. The data show an increase in Catholic and more pro-Irish identities but also the rise of a social sector that is not aligned with the two main historical blocs. The literature has linked Irish identity and the Catholic religion to the cause of Irish reunification, so this may have been reflected in an increase in support for it. However, following trends in the analysis of independence in other territories, this article aims to analyse whether socio-economic or public policy-related factors also play a role today. To corroborate this hypothesis, logistic regression models are used to show the main explanatory variables in favour of this territorial option. The results show the pre-eminence of national and political identities, but instrumental factors also appear, such as the position on the Northern Ireland Protocol, especially in the case of the “non-aligned” sectors.

Keywords

• northern ireland
• reunification
• irish nationalism
• unionism
• brexit
• northern irland protocol