Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence (Apr 2022)
Predicting Universal Healthcare Through Health Financial Management for Sustainable Development in BRICS, GCC, and AUKUS Economic Blocks
Abstract
The majority of the world's population is still facing difficulties in getting access to primary healthcare facilities. Universal health coverage (UHC) proposes access to high-quality, affordable primary healthcare for all. The 17 UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) are expected to be executed and achieved by all the 193 countries through national sustainable development strategies and multi-stakeholder partnerships. This article addresses SDG 3.8—access to good quality and affordable healthcare and two subindicators related to societal impact (SDG 3.8.1 and 3.8.2) through two objectives. The first objective is to determine whether health expenditure indicators (HEIs) drive UHC, and the second objective is to analyze the importance of key determinants and their interactions with UHC in three economic blocks: emerging Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC); developing Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) vis-à-vis the developed Australia, UK, and USA (AUKUS). We use the WHO Global Health Indicator database and UHC periodical surveys to evaluate the hypotheses. We apply state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) models and ordinary least square (traditional—OLS regression) methods to see the superiority of artificial intelligence (AI) over traditional ones. The ML Random Forest Tree method is found to be superior to the OLS model in terms of lower root mean square error (RMSE). The ML results indicate that domestic private health expenditure (PVT-D), out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPS) per Capita in US dollars, and voluntary health insurance (VHI) as a percentage of current health expenditure (CHE) are the key factors influencing UHC across the three economic blocks. Our findings have implications for drafting health and finance sector public policies, such as providing affordable social health insurance to the weaker sections of the population, making insurance premiums less expensive and affordable for the masses, and designing healthcare financing policies that are beneficial to the masses. UHC is an important determinant of health for all and requires an in-depth analysis of related factors. Policymakers are often faced with the challenge of prioritizing the economic needs of sectors such as education and food safety, making it difficult for healthcare to receive its due share. In this context, this article attempts to identify the key components that may influence the attainment of UHC and enable policy changes to address them more effectively and efficiently.
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