AUTOREGRESSIVE FRACTIONAL INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARFIMA) MODEL TO PREDICT COVID-19 PANDEMIC CASES IN INDONESIA

Abstract

Currently the emergence of the novel coronavirus (Sars-Cov-2), which causes the COVID-19 pandemic and has become a serious health problem because of the high risk causes of death. Therefore, fast and appropriate action is needed to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the way is to build a prediction model so that it can be a reference in taking steps to overcome them. Because of the nature of transmission of this disease which is so fast and massive cause extreme data fluctuations and between objects whose observational distances are far enough correlated with each other (long memory). The result of this determination is the best ARFIMA model obtained to predict additional of recovering cases of COVID-19 is (1,0,489.0) with an SMAPE value of 12,44%, while the case of death is (1.0.429.0) with SMAPE value of 13,52%. This shows that the ARFIMA model can accommodate well the long memory effect, resulting in a small bias. Also in estimating model parameters, it is also simpler. For cases of recovery and death, the number is increasing even though the case of death is still very high compared to cases of recovery.

Keywords

• arfima, prediction, covid-19