Tuberculosis in Aceh Province, Indonesia: a spatial epidemiological study covering the period 2019–2021

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there were any TB clusters in Aceh Province, Indonesia and their temporal distribution during the period of 2019–2021. A spatial geo-reference was conducted to 290 sub-districts coordinates by geocoding each sub-district’s offices. By using SaTScan TM v9.4.4, a retrospective space-time scan statistics analysis based on population data and annual TB incidence was carried out. To determine the regions at high risk of TB, data from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2021 were evaluated using the Poisson model. The likelihood ratio (LLR) value was utilized to locate the TB clusters based on a total of 999 permutations were performed. A Moran’s I analysis (using GeoDa) was chosen for a study of both local and global spatial autocorrelation. The threshold for significance was fixed at 0.05. At the sub-district level, the spatial distribution of TB in Aceh Province from 2019-2021 showed 19 clusters (three most likely and 16 secondary ones), and there was a spatial autocorrelation of TB. The findings can be used to provide thorough knowledge on the spatial pattern of TB occurrence, which is important for designing effective TB interventions.

Keywords

• Spatial epidemiology
• TB
• clusters
• Aceh province
• Indonesia