Positioning Bio-Based Energy Systems in a Hypercomplex Decision Space—A Case Study

Abstract

The optimization of the energy portfolio for a small, open, landlocked economy with rather limited fossil resources is a complex task because it must find a long-range, sustainable balance between the various goals of society under the constant pressure of different interest groups. The opinions of independent, informed experts could be an essential input in the decision-making process. The goal of this research was to determine the relative importance of the values and goals potentially accompanying projects, based on the utilization of bioenergy. The current research is based on a wide-ranging survey of 65 non-partisan experts, applying the Pareto analytic hierarchy process to ensure the unbiased prioritization of project segments. The results of the survey put a spotlight on the importance of the economic role of bioenergy projects. Contrary to previous expectations and considerations, the social functions of these projects have hitherto been given relatively little importance. The results highlight the importance of bioenergy in increasing the income-generating capacity of agricultural producers by optimal utilization of natural resources for agricultural production. This can be achieved without considerable deterioration of the natural environment. Modern agricultural production is characterized by high levels of mechanization and automatization. Under these conditions, the social role of bioenergy projects (job creation) is rather limited.

Keywords

• analytic hierarchy process
• bibliometrics
• complex decision making
• environmental policy
• Pareto algorithm
• strategy formation