Analyzing the Factors Influencing Time Delays in Korean Railroad Accidents

Abstract

Railroads play a pivotal role in the Korean national economy, necessitating a thorough understanding of factors influencing accidents for effective mitigation strategies. Unlike prior research focused on accident frequency and severity, this study delves into the often-overlooked aspect of time delays resulting from railroad accidents. Analyzing 15 years of nationwide data (2008–2022), encompassing 3244 human-related and 3350 technical events, this research identifies key factors influencing delay likelihood and duration. Factors considered include event type, season, train type, location, operator size, person type involved, facility type, and causes. Despite an overall decrease in events, variable delay times highlight the need to comprehend specific contributing factors. To address excess zeros, the study employs a two-stage model and a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model, alongside artificial neural networks (ANNs) for non-linear pattern recognition. Human-related delays are influenced by event types, seasons, and passenger categories, exhibit nuanced impacts. Technical-related delays are influenced by incident types and facility involvement. Regarding model performance, the ANN models outperform regression-based models consistently in all cases. This study emphasizes the importance of considering both human and technical factors in predicting and understanding railroad accident delays, offering valuable insights for formulating strategies to mitigate service disruptions associated with these incidents.

Keywords

• railroad accidents
• time delays
• human-related
• technical-related
• zero-inflated negative binomial