Assessment and Forecast of Socio-Demographic Threats to Global Security

Abstract

The article studies and analyzes typical regularities of correlation between quantitative characteristics of social systems (indicators) and correlation between the structure and dynamics of threats on the basis of expert estimation in points. It identifies and grounds the necessity of using the obtained forecast of socio-demographic threats in order to develop and pursue new global demographic policy. A long-term scientifically grounded strategy is necessary to meet efficiently new serious challenges to global security that jeopardize civilization on the Earth. But this strategy has not been developed yet. In order to manage living processes or social systems it is needed to have their quantitative characteristics (indicators). For physical and economic processes and systems the system of gauges in the form of natural or value indexes can be used. In this case methods of expert assessment will allow us to reduce non-comparable indexes to their common index showing them in points. Such methods of quantitative assessment are used widely in public science. To assess threats to global security the authors propose to use strategic matrix in two modifications: for quantitative measuring the level of threat dynamic to global security by 6 elements of civilization genotype (genotype of civilization) and more detail matrix for each of 6 elements and estimation of their concrete indexes. Its novelty is the use of information for 60 years, including those of forecast by the optimistic scenario. The basis of matrix is formed by estimation of the system of socio-demographic element in genotype. The use of multi-factor matrix can provide an opportunity to range by their importance technological, informational and economic threats to global security in the 1-st half of the 21st century

Keywords

• цивилизационный генотип
• оптимистический сценарий
• глобализация
• многофакторная матрица