Analysis of a paired regression model of the impact of income from international tourism on the foreign trade balance

Abstract

International tourism is one of the largest and most highly profitable sectors of the world economy. International tourism takes a special place in the system of world economic relations and universal values, and it contributes to the strengthening of positive trends in the economic, political and sociocultural life of society. Many researchers agree that international tourism has a strong impact on employment, as new jobs are geographically speaking, spread more widely than in other sectors of the economy. At the same time, existing work often does not address in detail and from the point of view of statistical analysis the relationship between tourism and the foreign trade balance of the country. That is why the definition of the role and importance of international tourism in the formation of macroeconomic indicators of the country, in particular - the foreign trade balance - is an extremely pressing issue for the development of the economy of an individual country and the world. This article is devoted to defining the role of international tourism in improving the structure of foreign trade activities. Correlation regression analysis is given. Based on the research carried out, the link between international tourism and the foreign trade balance of the country has been identified. Based on the statistical analysis of the country's data for 1995 - 2018, this showed that there is a correlation of exports of goods from revenues of international tourism. With a 1% increase in international tourism revenues, exports of goods from other industries grow by an average of 0.57%, and the foreign trade balance grows by an average of 0.59%. In this research, the role of tourism in the balance of payments has been proved very significantly.

Keywords

• correlation-regression analysis
• international tourism
• foreign trade balance
• pair regression model
• azerbaijan