Application of Artificial Intelligence in the Assessment and Forecast of Avalanche Danger in the Ile Alatau Ridge

Abstract

The assessment and forecast of avalanche danger are very important means of preventing avalanche fatalities, especially in recreational areas. The use of artificial intelligence methods for these purposes significantly increases the accuracy of avalanche forecasts. The purpose of this re-search was to improve the methods for assessing and forecasting avalanche danger in the Ile Alatau Ridge. To create a training sample, the data from three meteorological and two avalanche stations for the period from 2002 to 2022 were used. The following predictors were chosen: air temperature, snow cover depth, precipitation, and snowpack stability index. The subject of the assessment and forecasts was the level of avalanche danger, assessed on a five-point scale. The program Statistica StatSoft was used as a neurosimulator. When forecasting avalanche danger, the predictive values of air temperature and precipitation, obtained from numerical weather forecast models, were used. The model correctly assessed the current level of avalanche danger in 90% of cases. The forecast of avalanche danger was justified in 80% of cases. The artificial intelligence program helped the avalanche forecaster to improve the forecast quality. This method is currently being used for compiling an avalanche bulletin for two river basins in the Ile Alatau.

Keywords

• artificial intelligence
• artificial neural network
• avalanche danger forecast
• avalanche danger assessment
• Northern Tien Shan