Glacier velocity and surge detection in the Karakoram region, Pakistan: using remotely sensed data with cross-correlation feature tracking

Abstract

This research addresses the knowledge gap regarding glacier surging detection (GSD) and their potential downstream implications for Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) risk. This study investigates GSD across the Karakoram region, Pakistan, focusing on 30 glaciers from 2013 to 2023. The increasing occurrence of irregular and rapid glacial surges poses significant threats to downstream communities, the potential formation of ice dam lakes, and subsequent outburst floods. High-resolution satellite imagery, DEM, temperature, and precipitation data quantified glacier velocity rate (GVR) using feature-tracking, surge detection, and correlations. Findings indicate substantial movement ≥42 m/y during 2015–19 and 2021–22, peaking at 56.98 m/y in 2018–19; with significant Z-Scores, surges were recorded in KG-01, KG-06, KG-07, KG-19, KG-29, and KG-30. The region witnessed significant elevation changes, with a positive change at the terminus of KG-01, KG-06, KG-07, and KG-29 and a negative at the glacier’s accumulation zones. Furthermore, climatic factors, including rising average temperatures (17°C to 20°C) and precipitation (14 to 30 mm/y), significantly influenced glacier velocity, affecting glaciers by 20-43% and 38-59%, respectively. These findings underscore the pivotal role of surge velocities in shaping glacier outlets and influencing lake drainage, potentially leading to GLOFs.

Keywords

• Cross-correlation
• glacier velocity rate (GVR)
• glacier surge detection (GSD)
• elevation change
• climatic factors
• GLOFs