Comparative Analysis of Influenza Modeling Using Novel Fractional Operators with Real Data

Abstract

In this work, the efficacy of fractional models under Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo, Caputo–Fabrizio, and Caputo is compared to the performance of integer-order models in the forecasting of weekly influenza cases using data from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The suggested fractional influenza model was effectively verified using fractional calculus. Our investigation uncovered the topic’s essential properties and deepened our understanding of disease progression. Furthermore, we analyzed the numerical scheme’s positivity, limitations, and symmetry. The fractional-order models demonstrated superior accuracy, producing smaller root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) than the classical model. The novelty of this work lies in introducing the Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo fractional model to influenza forecasting to incorporate memory of an epidemic, which leads to higher accuracy than traditional models. These models effectively captured the peak and drop of influenza cases. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that fractional-order models perform better than typical integer-order models when predicting influenza dynamics. These insights should illuminate the importance of fractional calculus in addressing epidemic threats.

Keywords

• influenza model
• fractional models
• fractional operators
• modelling
• simulations