Heuristic Model to Compute Indices for Classification of Incidence and Non-Incidence of Thunderstorms Over Ranchi With Atmospheric Parameter

Abstract

Prediction of incidences of thunderstorms using different techniques is quite well established. To add to this knowledge, in this paper, a heuristic equation is proposed which relates the correlation coefficient of atmospheric parameters with the number of hourly incidences of thunderstorms. There are four ways to compute the indices values from the proposed heuristic equation. These indices values are used in the classification of the hourly incidences of thunderstorms. The proposed equation and indices work well, as tested on pre-monsoon hourly atmospheric data from 2018 and validated with hourly data from April 2019 and 2020. From the four indices, the first index value is computed with normalized average values of parameters of only hourly incidence of thunderstorms data of 2016-2017 in the month-wise method. The other three indices use optimization techniques namely, the Teaching Learning Based Optimization (TLBO) technique, Differential Evaluation (DE), and Simulated Annealing (SA). TLBO shows better classification of hourly incidences of thunderstorms for 2018 atmospheric data. TLBO is also precisely validating the hourly incidences of thunderstorms for April 2019 and April 2020 hourly atmospheric data. It performed better with 2020 data by 88%. The variations of atmospheric parameters before, after or, during the incidences of thunderstorms are also depicted.

Keywords

• Correlation coefficient
• thunderstorm
• teaching learning based optimization
• differential evolution
• simulated annealing