Guiding conservation strategies for China’s Corybas species through species distribution modeling

Abstract

Corybas Salisb. is a widespread plant genus in the family Orchidaceae, known for its small, beautiful flowers. Most species in this genus are narrow endemics. China is home to six Corybas species, five of which are endangered, covering southern China from Taiwan to the western Himalayas. Niche overlap analysis was conducted on global Corybas species to assess the conservation value of Chinese Corybas species from evolutionary, adaptive, and niche diversity perspectives. The results revealed that Chinese Corybas species have formed a unique niche lineage, warranting conservation efforts. Due to challenges in field investigations, the potential distribution patterns of Chinese Corybas species remain unclear. The Species Distribution Model (SDM) using MaxEnt and Ensembles of Small Models (ESMs) was employed to analyze the potential distributions of five Corybas species in southern China and guide genus conservation. Both MaxEnt and ESMs analyses indicated that Chinese Corybas species may face significant environmental challenges in the future. This study identified gaps in fieldwork, highlighting the need to explore new populations of Corybas species in these areas. Conservation recommendations considering future climate change were proposed to aid programs aimed at preserving Chinese Corybas species.

Keywords

• Species Distribution Model (SDM)
• Rare species modeling paradox
• Endangered species
• Niche overlap