Predicting the Potential Distribution of a Rodent Pest, Brown Rat (Rattus norvegicus), Associated With Changes in Climate and Land Cover in South Korea

Abstract

ABSTRACT The distribution of mammalian pests is altered by changes in global climate and land cover. Rattus norvegicus is a significant pest that contributes to the catastrophic decline of native species. Therefore, the studies identifying potentially suitable habitats for Rattus norvegicus and the impact of future climate change on the extent of such habitats are crucial. In this study, we determined the effects of key environmental and ecological variables on Rattus norvegicus in South Korea by considering multiple climate changes, land cover, and dispersal scenarios. The available presence locations with the least correlated variables and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model along with multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios were utilized to project current and future habitat suitability. Additionally, three dispersal scenarios were incorporated into the model to enrich the analysis of potential future distribution. Mean diurnal temperature, elevation, and nighttime light were the three most important variables contributing to the species' distribution. The coastal and northern regions of South Korea constitute currently suitable habitats and are expected to exhibit a significant increase in the species' population under future climate projections. The results demonstrate the potential expansion of Rattus norvegicus as a result of changes in climate and land cover and provide crucial insights into the species' environmental niches. This study highlights the potential areas for monitoring, early warning, and developing effective prevention and control strategies for Rattus norvegicus.

Keywords

• climate change
• conservation
• dispersal scenarios
• eco‐geographical variables
• MaxEnt
• Rattus norvegicus