Lagged Response of MJO Convection and Precipitation to Solar Ultraviolet Variations on Intraseasonal Time Scales

Abstract

Abstract Composite analyses of NOAA satellite‐based outgoing longwave radiation data and ERA5 reanalysis data for nearly six solar maximum periods support the existence of a response of tropical convection and precipitation to short‐term (∼27‐day) solar ultraviolet variations. Following solar UV peaks, the response consists of an increase in average convection and precipitation in the equatorial Indian Ocean and a decrease in the western and central tropical Pacific, with maximum amplitude at a lag of 4 to 8 days. The opposite occurs following short‐term solar UV minima. The observed responses are most detectable when the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is active and appear to be related to a reduced ability of the MJO to propagate across the Maritime Continent barrier following solar UV peaks relative to UV minima. A similar behavior has previously been found when the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation is in its westerly phase relative to its easterly phase.

Keywords

• Madden‐Julian Oscillation
• solar variability
• Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation