Developing a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Subsequent Vascular Events at 6-Month in Chinese Patients with Minor Ischemic Stroke

Abstract

Yuping Du,1 Ping Gu,2 Yu Cui,2 Yi Wang,2 Juanjuan Ran2 1Department of Neurology, the 904th Hospital of Joint Logistic Support Force, PLA, Wuxi, 214044, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Neurology, Wuxi No.5 People’s Hospital, Wuxi, 214000, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Juanjuan RanDepartment of Neurology, Wuxi No.5 People’s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, People’s Republic of ChinaTel [phone]Fax [phone]Email [email protected]: To develop a nomogram to predict the risk of subsequent vascular events (SVE) at 6-month in Chinese patients with minor ischemic stroke (MIS).Patients and Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 260 MIS patients, which were randomly divided into a derivation set (193 cases) and a verification set (67 cases) at a ratio of 3:1. Multi-factor logistic regression was used to construct a predictive model of SVE from the derivation set and verify it in the verification set.Results: Finally, there were 51 cases (19.6%) of SVE in 260 MIS cases. Age, fasting blood glucose, metabolic syndrome, number of lesions found on MRI, and the infarct size were used to construct the prediction model and nomogram. The AUC in the derivation set was 0.901, with a sensitivity of 0.795, a specificity of 0.877, a positive likelihood ratio of 6.443, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.234. The AUC in the verification set was 0.897, which was not significantly different from the derivation set (P = 0.937). The predictive model based on clinical parameters has good diagnostic efficiency and robustness.Conclusion: The nomogram can provide personalized predictions for the 6-month SVE risk in Chinese MIS patients.Keywords: logistic models, nomograms, brain ischemia, stroke, infarction

Keywords

• logistic models；nomograms；brain ischemia；stroke；infarction