Shared socioeconomic pathways and long-term GHG mitigation towards 2050 in Thailand cement industry

Abstract

Thailand’s cement industry shows a significant share of energy consumption and GHG emissions in industries. Therefore, the industry will need to curb its emissions to meet the first national determined contribution (NDC). This study attempts to clarify two research questions: firstly, what is the cement demand under several scenarios of economic and demographic development pathways in Thailand’s cement industry? Secondly, how Thailand’s cement industry achieves the 1.5°. The scopes of this study focus on the per capita cement consumption in 2050, the energy consumption pathways, technology mix, and GHG emissions and other air pollutants. The scenarios include the cement industry target proposed in Thailand’s first NDC and the perspective in 2050. The socioeconomic indicators follow the SSPs narrative. The AIM/Enduse model used in this study is based on linear optimized bottom-up approach. Results show that the energy efficiency improvement and the increase of alternative energy in cement industry will reduce GHG emissions in 2050. To achieve the 1.5-degree pathway, the CCS technology will be deployed after 2022 with a carbon tax rate of US$ 500/t CO2. The use of biomass, municipal solid waste, and sewage sludge will offer a variety of environmental, social, and economic advantages. However, other air pollutants will be increased. Therefore, the policy makers should provide alternative fuel use limitations. Additionally, the CO2 transport and storage need to be assessed in the long-term climate policies.

Keywords

• SSPs
• Long-term GHG mitigation
• AIM/Enduse
• Cement industry
• Thailand