مدلسازی و مدیریت آب و خاک (Jan 2022)
Evaluation of climate change and its effects on tomato yield in Abhar Plain
Abstract
Introduction Today, climate change is one of the issues that has always been the focus of the world. The use of general circulation models (GCM) is one of the most reliable methods for simulating climate variables in future periods. One of the influential factors in plant growth and yield is temperature. Therefore, in this study, the future temperature trend in Abhar Plain under the influence of climate change during future periods was investigated to study the effects of climate change on tomato yield.Materials and Methods The current study tried to simulate the tomato yield using the AquaCrop plant growth simulation model. We used synoptic stations of Khorramdareh which was located at a very short distance from Abhar (6 km) in the central part of the region and it had a similar climate to Abhar. The minimum, average and maximum temperatures measured at Khorramdareh Synoptic Station were used in the period of 1991-2010. LARS-WG software and A2 climate scenario and Hadcm3 model were also used for climate simulation. Then, using plant yield simulation by the AquaCrop model, plant yield was simulated and estimated in future periods and at different cultivation times. In this study, the observation period of 1991-2010, near future (2011-2030), middle future (2046-2065), and far future (2080-2099) have been considered.Results and Discussion The highest yield in tomato crop cultivation at present is related to 5 June (15 Khordad in the Solar year) cultivation with 55.57 t ha-1. Since the conventional planting time in the Abhar region is 26 May (5 Khordad in the Solar year), with 10 days of transferring the conventional cultivation time to 5 June (15 Khordad in the Solar year), the yield will increase by 0.51 t ha-1. Tomato yield will also increase over the next horizon, which may be due to the plant's C3 photosynthetic system and premature fruiting and flowering.Conclusion The LARS-WG model in predicting minimum, average, and maximum temperature, it shows an increasing trend in the future. The values of maximum and minimum temperature in the middle future will be higher than in the near future and the far future will be higher than the middle future compared to the observed period. The highest yield in tomato crop cultivation at present is related to 5 June (15 Khordad in the Solar year), cultivation with 55.57 57 t ha-1. Since the conventional planting time of the study region is 26 May (5 Khordad in the Solar year), with ten days of transferring the conventional cultivation time to 5 June (15 Khordad in the solar year), the yield will increase by 0.51 57 t ha-1. Tomato yield will also increase over the next horizon, which may be due to the plant's C3 photosynthetic system and more early ripening and flowering.
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