Pathogens (Nov 2023)
Trends in the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy during the Summers of 2020 (before Mass Vaccination), 2021 (after Primary Mass Vaccination) and 2022 (after Booster Mass Vaccination): A Real-World Nationwide Study Based on a Population of 58.85 Million People
Abstract
Like all RNA viruses, SARS-CoV-2 shows a high mutation rate, which has led to the emergence of new variants. Among them, Gamma and Delta developed at the turn of 2020–2021 in Amazonas and India, two ecoregions characterized by hot-humid weather, very similar to that of the summer season in Italy due to climate change, the first Western country to be hit hard by COVID-19 and to experience lockdown restrictions in a democratic framework of 58.85 million people. The aim of our research has been to evaluate the impact of climate on the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy during the summers of 2020 (before mass vaccination), 2021 (after primary mass vaccination) and 2022 (after booster mass vaccination), also taking into account the emergence of these two variants. Methods: During the state of national health emergency and the Draghi government, the Civil Defense Department released the aggregate data coming from the Ministry of Health, the Higher Institute of Health, the Independent Provinces and the Italian Regions daily, in order to inform about the pandemic situation in Italy. Among these data there were the number of deaths, hospitalizations in intensive care units (ICU), non-ICU patients, contagions and performed swabs. By means of a team effort, we have collected and elaborated all these data, comparing the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy during the summers of 2020 (following the nationwide lockdown), 2021 and 2022. Results: from the summer of 2020 to the summers of 2021 and 2022 all pandemic trend indicators have shown a sharp worsening in Italy. COVID-19 deaths increased by ≈298% and ≈834%, ICU hospitalizations by ≈386% and ≈310%, non-ICU hospitalizations by ≈224% and ≈600%, contagions by ≈627% and ≈6850% (i.e., ≈68.50 times), swabs by ≈354% and ≈370%, and the mean positivity rate passed from ≈1% to ≈2% and ≈20%, respectively. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted in any climate, including areas with hot and humid weather, and the emergence of variants adapted to hot-humid climates may result in summer COVID-19 outbreaks, even in neither tropical nor subtropical countries. Although COVID-19 vaccines can confer cross-protection against newly emerging variants, this cross-immunity is naturally not absolute but limited, considering that vaccine protection wanes significantly after 6 months. It follows that a subject vaccinated at the beginning of the winter will not be completely covered in the height of the summer, and we should not forget the unvaccinated. As a final remark, the long and strict nationwide lockdown made it possible to flatten SARS-CoV-2 circulation and, therefore, its negative impact on Italy during the summer of 2020.
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