The Futurology of Yemeni Crisis in Terms of Scenario Writing

Abstract

With the entrance of the Islamic Awakening (the Arab Spring) into Yemen, Yemeni people in particular Houthis up rose against the government of Ali Abdullah Saleh that led to a 7-year and still-dissolved crisis. Due to the strategic situation of Yemen, the developments in this country have always been in the attention of influential countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United States of America, which together with the ]Persian[ Gulf Cooperation Council, tried to manage this crisis by replacing Mansour Hadi, deputy of Abdullah Saleh. But, this crisis has gradually become more complex and observers seek to suggest an appropriate solution. Therefore, this study seeks to answer this question that the developments in Yemen and the approaches of domestic and foreign actors what future can bring to the country? The findings of this futurology research based on scenario writing suggest the emergence of preferable scenarios such as the end of the conflict and starting peace negotiations and continuation of the conflict till surrendering Houthis and possible scenarios such as the acceptance of federalism and the breakdown of this country as well as a possible scenarios, namely the rise of al-Qaeda and the ISIS and the establishment of the Islamic Emirate in Yemen.

Keywords

• futurology
• yemen
• saudi arabia
• ansarullah
• scenario writing