Determinants of COVID-19 Impact on the Private Sector: A Multi-Country Analysis Based on Survey Data

Abstract

Our paper aims to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on private sector companies in terms of sales, production, finance and employment. We check whether the country and industry in which companies operate, government financial support and loan access matter to the behaviour and performances of companies during the pandemic. We use a microdata set from a worldwide survey of more than 15,729 companies conducted between April and September 2020 by the World Bank. Logistic regression is used to assess which factors increase the likelihood of businesses suffering due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show that COVID-19 negatively impacts the performance of companies in almost all countries analysed, but a stronger effect is observed among firms from developing countries. The pandemic is more harmful to firms providing services than those representing the manufacturing sector. Due to the pandemic, firms suffer mainly in sales and liquidity decrease rather than employment reduction. The increase in the number of temporary workers is an important factor that significantly reduces the probability of sales, exports or supply decline. The analysis results indicate policy tools supporting enterprises during the pandemic, such as increasing the flexibility of the labour market or directing aid to developing countries.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• pandemic
• company’s performance
• logistic regression