Research on Vertical Collision Risk of Air Route Flight Based on Improved Event Model

Abstract

With the increasingly busy operation of civil aviation airspace,how to build an effective and reasonable mathematical model from the perspective of quantitative analysis to quantify the risk of route flight collision and improve the scientific nature of route planning and management is a problem faced by the industry. A risk assessment method of vertical collision during route flight based on improved Event model is proposed. In this method,the cuboid collision box in the original event model is replaced by two spliced elliptic cone collision boxes which conform to the velocity vector distribution of the aircraft in space to calculate the probability of the aircraft passing through the adjacent altitude layers. The vertical collision risk formula of the aircraft in the improved route is derived by using the area size ratio of the improved front and rear collision boxes. The collision risk parameters obtained by formula are verified. The results show that the vertical collision risk calculated by the improved method is about 13% of the original cuboid event model and 67% of the original ellipsoid event model. It is feasible to use this method for quantitative evaluation.

Keywords

• improved event model
• parallel route
• collision risk
• stitched elliptical cone
• altitude layer