Growing‐season climate as an explanation of spatial variations in temperature sensitivity of green‐up on Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Abstract Temperature sensitivity (TS) of the green‐up date (GUD) of plants is crucial for the prediction of grassland phenology that is important for animal husbandry and pasture management. Spatial variations in the TS are known to reflect interannual temperature variability and/or accumulated precipitation preceding the GUD (pre‐GUD). However, whether spatial TS variations are related to the interaction between pre‐GUD temperature variability and precipitation, which is a potential indicator of frost risk, remains unclear. Furthermore, because the interaction between interannual temperature variability and accumulated precipitation following the GUD (post‐GUD) can exert selection pressure on the plant life cycle, it may also be involved in shaping the spatial TS pattern. Using long‐term ground observations of GUD on the Tibetan Plateau, we show that TS is more negative (greater GUD advance per unit temperature increase) in areas with more pre‐GUD precipitation and low pre‐GUD interannual temperature variability, but less negative in areas with more pre‐GUD precipitation and high pre‐GUD interannual temperature variability. This result is likely because more pre‐GUD precipitation facilitates sprout and leaf development under stable temperature conditions, whereas it increases frost risk when the temperature variability is high. In contrast, TS magnitude decreases with increases in post‐GUD precipitation in areas where post‐GUD interannual temperature variability is low, but increases with post‐GUD precipitation in areas where post‐GUD interannual temperature variability is high. We speculate that because hydrothermal demands for leaf growth from the onset of green‐up to maturity are more easily fulfilled when interannual temperature variability is lower and precipitation is higher, green‐up need not be sensitive to pre‐GUD temperature. In contrast, high post‐GUD precipitation likely aggravates low‐temperature constraints on leaf growth when temperature variability is high, resulting in greater TS to maximize growing season length. These results suggest that spatial TS variations on the Tibetan Plateau are likely associated with adaptations of leaf‐out phenology to background pre‐GUD climatic conditions together with selection pressure from post‐GUD conditions.

Keywords

• alpine ecosystem
• climate change
• dryland
• spring phenology
• temperature sensitivity
• temperature variability