The contemporary trends and geographic variation in premature mortality due to heart failure from 1999 to 2018 in the United States

Abstract

Objectives: We aimed to examine the contemporary trends and regional variations in premature mortality due to heart failure across the U.S. from 1999 to 2018. Background: For most U.S. census regions, it is unknown whether premature mortality (deaths among persons under age 65) due to heart failure is increasing -or decreasing. Methods: In this descriptive study, the death certificate data were retrieved from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database and examined from 1999 to 2018 for the underlying cause of death. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 persons and annual percent change (APC) in rates stratified by census region were calculated using Joinpoint trend analysis software. Results: There were 118,116 premature deaths due to heart failure from 1999 to 2018 across the U.S. Of these 52.40% of deaths were reported in the South, 20.30% in the Midwest, 15.10% in the West, and 12.20% in the Northeast. The AAMRs were the highest in the South region (range: 3.1–4.9) and the lowest in the Northeast region (range: 1.5–1.9). There was an overall decline in mortality across all regions from 1999 till 2011–2012. However, mortality has an upward trajectory throughout all the census regions after 2012. Conclusions: This study on nationwide data showed that overall premature mortality due to heart failure declined from 1999 to 2011–2012 followed by an upward trajectory from 2012 to 2018; the explanation for this merits further discovery.

Keywords

• Heart failure
• Premature mortality
• Census regions
• Disparities