Risk Evaluation of Sewage Treatment PPPABS Projects Using Combination Weight Method and D-S Evidence Theory

Abstract

In order to make up for the shortage of public-private partnership (PPP) model, more and more sewage treatment PPP projects have adopted the asset-backed securitization (ABS) model. To ensure success of sewage treatment PPPABS projects, risk evaluation, which has remained scarcity and unscientific, is becoming an urgent problem to be solved. Firstly, this paper identifies critical risk factors by literature analysis and expert interview. The final risk system is established from the perspectives of macrorisks, basic asset risks, transaction structure risks, operational risks, and other risks, which include 17 second risk factors. Then, the overall risk evaluation method is proposed based on combination weight method and Dempster–Shafer (D-S) evidence theory. Next, Beijing capital Co. Ltd. sewage treatment PPPABS project as a case is employed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. Finally, awareness of existing risks, suggestions from law risk, quality risk, underwriting and issue risk, and credit enhancement are provided for sewage treatment PPPABS projects. All above studies are expected to provide helpful references for evaluating overall risk of sewage treatment PPPABS projects.