Has aging reduced the impact of consumption on GDP? ——Empirical Testing Based on Threshold Regression

Abstract

Based on the threshold regression model, from the perspective of per capita consumption, this paper explores whether the degree of aging reduces the driving effect of consumption on China's GDP, and examines the impact of consumption structure on GDP. It is found that per capita consumption has a positive effect on regional GDP, and aging plays a threshold role in the impact. As the aging worsens, the driving effect of per capita consumption on GDP begins to strengthen, and the impact of the aging dependency ratio is the largest when it is between 10.44 and 13.10. The impact of per capita health consumption is not significant, and the per capita consumption of education, culture and entertainment has a restraining effect on GDP. Finally, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions based on the above conclusions.