Counting the cost: The potential impact of African Swine Fever on smallholders in Timor-Leste

Abstract

In September 2019, Timor-Leste, where pigs are kept by more than 70 percent of households, became the eleventh Asian country to report African Swine Fever (ASF). Drawing on our recent, as-yet unpublished research we show that while national pork consumption is low, pigs hold tremendous monetary value for smallholders within the economy of ceremonies. Given the sums of money paid for live pigs, the value of the national pig herd is around USD160 million – more than USD1000 per pig keeping household. Accordingly, pigs serve to buffer families against shocks and pressures, especially for health and education expenses. While not a zoonosis, the potential for ASF to lead to significant, negative impacts for smallholder farmers in Timor-Leste - some of the world’s most vulnerable people - cannot be underestimated. We argue that Timor-Leste faces significant challenges in responding to ASF and there is a strong case for international support.