Scientific Reports (Jul 2023)
Estimating vaccine coverage in conflict settings using geospatial methods: a case study in Borno state, Nigeria
- Alyssa N. Sbarra,
- Sam Rolfe,
- Emily Haeuser,
- Jason Q. Nguyen,
- Aishatu Adamu,
- Daniel Adeyinka,
- Olufemi Ajumobi,
- Chisom Akunna,
- Ganiyu Amusa,
- Tukur Dahiru,
- Michael Ekholuenetale,
- Christopher Esezobor,
- Kayode Fowobaje,
- Simon I. Hay,
- Charles Ibeneme,
- Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye,
- Olayinka Ilesanmi,
- Gbenga Kayode,
- Kris Krohn,
- Stephen S. Lim,
- Lyla E. Medeiros,
- Shafiu Mohammed,
- Vincent Nwatah,
- Anselm Okoro,
- Andrew T. Olagunju,
- Bolajoko O. Olusanya,
- Osayomwanbo Osarenotor,
- Mayowa Owolabi,
- Brandon Pickering,
- Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan,
- Benjamin Uzochukwu,
- Ally Walker,
- Jonathan F. Mosser
Affiliations
- Alyssa N. Sbarra
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Sam Rolfe
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Emily Haeuser
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Jason Q. Nguyen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Aishatu Adamu
- Community Medicine Department, Bayero University Kano
- Daniel Adeyinka
- Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, University of Saskatchewan
- Olufemi Ajumobi
- School of Public Health, University of Nevada Reno
- Chisom Akunna
- Department of Public Health, Federal Ministry of Health
- Ganiyu Amusa
- Department of Internal Medicine, Jos University Teaching Hospital
- Tukur Dahiru
- Department of Community Medicine, Ahmadu Bello University
- Michael Ekholuenetale
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, University of Ibadan
- Christopher Esezobor
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Lagos
- Kayode Fowobaje
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, University of Ibadan
- Simon I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Charles Ibeneme
- Department of Public Health and Disease Control, Abia State Ministry of Health
- Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye
- Department of Health Promotion and Education, University of Ibadan
- Olayinka Ilesanmi
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Ibadan
- Gbenga Kayode
- International Research Center of Excellence, Institute of Human Virology Nigeria
- Kris Krohn
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Stephen S. Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Lyla E. Medeiros
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Shafiu Mohammed
- Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University
- Vincent Nwatah
- Department of Pediatrics, National Hospital Abuja
- Anselm Okoro
- Society for Family Health
- Andrew T. Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University
- Bolajoko O. Olusanya
- Centre for Healthy Start Initiative
- Osayomwanbo Osarenotor
- Department of Environmental Management and Toxicology, University of Benin
- Mayowa Owolabi
- Department of Medicine, University of Ibadan
- Brandon Pickering
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan
- Department of Community Medicine, Ahmadu Bello University
- Benjamin Uzochukwu
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Nigeria Nsukka
- Ally Walker
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Jonathan F. Mosser
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37947-8
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 13,
no. 1
pp. 1 – 8
Abstract
Abstract Reliable estimates of subnational vaccination coverage are critical to track progress towards global immunisation targets and ensure equitable health outcomes for all children. However, conflict can limit the reliability of coverage estimates from traditional household-based surveys due to an inability to sample in unsafe and insecure areas and increased uncertainty in underlying population estimates. In these situations, model-based geostatistical (MBG) approaches offer alternative coverage estimates for administrative units affected by conflict. We estimated first- and third-dose diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine coverage in Borno state, Nigeria, using a spatiotemporal MBG modelling approach, then compared these to estimates from recent conflict-affected, household-based surveys. We compared sampling cluster locations from recent household-based surveys to geolocated data on conflict locations and modelled spatial coverage estimates, while also investigating the importance of reliable population estimates when assessing coverage in conflict settings. These results demonstrate that geospatially-modelled coverage estimates can be a valuable additional tool to understand coverage in locations where conflict prevents representative sampling.
