Key Environmental Factors for Rapid Intensification of the South China Sea Tropical Cyclones

Yao Chen; Yao Chen; Si Gao; Si Gao; Xun Li; Xinyong Shen; Xinyong Shen

doi:10.3389/feart.2020.609727

Frontiers in Earth Science (Jan 2021)

Key Environmental Factors for Rapid Intensification of the South China Sea Tropical Cyclones

Yao Chen,
Yao Chen,
Si Gao,
Si Gao,
Xun Li,
Xinyong Shen,
Xinyong Shen

Affiliations

Yao Chen: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, and Collaborative Innovation Centre on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Yao Chen: Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, China Meteorological Administration, Haikou, China
Si Gao: School of Atmospheric Sciences, and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China
Si Gao: Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China
Xun Li: Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, China Meteorological Administration, Haikou, China
Xinyong Shen: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, and Collaborative Innovation Centre on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Xinyong Shen: Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.609727
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 8

Abstract

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Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of the South China Sea (SCS) tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an operational challenge, mainly owing to the incomplete understanding of its physical mechanisms. Based on TC best-track data, atmospheric analysis data, and sea surface temperature data, this study compares temporal evolution characteristics of environmental conditions from the previous 24 h to the onset time for RI and non-RI TCs in the SCS during 2000–2018, and then identifies key factors for RI of the SCS TCs using the box difference index and stepwise regression. A combination of strong divergence in the upper troposphere and strong convergence in the boundary layer, weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, fast storm translation speed, and high TC intensification potential (i.e., maximum potential intensity minus current intensity) north of the storm center at the previous 24 h are favorable for RI of the SCS TCs, and their importance for RI is in descending order. The results may shed light on operational forecasting of rapid intensification of the SCS TCs.

Published in Frontiers in Earth Science

ISSN: 2296-6463 (Online)
Publisher: Frontiers Media S.A.
Country of publisher: Switzerland
LCC subjects: Science
Website: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science

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