Sensitivity analysis and optimization of land use/cover and aquifer parameters for improved calibration of hydrological model

Abstract

Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model, based on Tank model philosophy, is a widely used flood forecasting model that has the capability to simulate the catchment processes of any river system provided the surface and aquifer parameters of each sub-model are accurately calibrated. In this study, sensitivity analysis and optimization of hydrogeological parameters of Tank model have been performed to identify the key hydrogeological parameters and their significance in simulating the stream flows in the basins of two important rivers of Pakistan – Jhelum River and Chenab Rivers – respectively. IFAS includes a set of four sub-models namely: surface tank model, sub-surface tank model, aquifer tank model and river course model. Each of the sub-models simulates its own flow processes using surface/aquifer parameters. In this study, sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the parameters that significantly affect the model performance to simulate the flows in the river. Linear stochastic metamodels of Jhelum River and Chenab River Basins developed in this study played the role of metamodels or surrogate functions to determine the ranges of parameter values in different flow periods. The outcome demonstrates when the aquifer tank parameters values obtained from metamodels are applied, the simulation results in a nearly accurate calibration, which clearly indicates the efficiency of present methodology and the important role of hydrogeological parameters. Further, the analysis of the variability in the effectiveness of these parameters in different flow periods as well as for different catchments areas depicts spatial-temporal heterogeneous characteristics. This confirms that the analysis should be directed independently for each study basin because the results of sensitivity analysis are not transferable among catchments.