Current Trends in the Evolution of the Seventh Cholera Pandemics

Abstract

The major trends were denned in the dynamics of cholera incidence over the world: in Africa, Asia, Americas (1997-2006). The tendency towards the increase in the dynamics of cholera morbidity in the world (rate of growth +12.817%) was found to be dependent on the incidence trends in Africa (+7.886 %). Formation of stable endemic foci in Africa is nowadays a prognostically important unfavorable index of the 7th cholera pandemic evolution. According to WHO's formal information, 728 imported cases of cholera were reported worldwide from the countries of Asia (62.4%), Europe (22.1 %), Americas, from the USA and Canada (11 %), Australia and Oceania (4.1 %), as well as from Africa (0.4 %). The imported character of cholera outbreaks in different countries of Asia and Africa was confirmed by molecular studies of V. cholerae Ol strains. Currently, Bengal cholera is not only registered to be imported to different continents from endemic foci of India and Bangladesh, but also there is a tendency to annually detect cholera infection with no reported importation cases (China). The current trends in the evolution of the seventh cholera epidemics in CIS states and Russia during the analyzed period are determined by the importation of the infection with or without its subsequent spread. The seventh cholera pandemic is still going on. Cholera forecast worldwide remains unfavorable.

Keywords

• cholera
• vibrio cholerae
• pandemics
• endemic foci
• epidemiologic situation