Dynamic Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Method for Risk-Based Ship Design

Abstract

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is regarded as an effective approach to support decision-making in shipbuilding to balance safety, technology, and cost. However, the selection of risk control options (RCOs) in the FSA process still needs to be studied before the FSA becomes a generic approach. This study proposed a multi-attribute-based assessing model to support the decision-making process regarding RCOs. The attributes of RCOs were divided into the performance and cost-effectiveness attribute sets. Moreover, a dynamic selection procedure of attributes was designed based on the ‘as low as reasonable and practicable’ (ALARP) principle. The application of the dynamic multi-attribute model can make it possible to rank RCOs by considering the changes in the decision-makers’ risk aversion to risk levels. In this model, a comprehensive weighting method based on game theory was used to balance the subjective and objective weights of the attributes. An improved grey rational analysis (GRA) was used to perform the multi-attribute assessment of RCOs. Therefore, this dynamic multi-attribute model is combined with the ALARP principle and evaluated using GRA. Finally, a case regarding crude tankers was studied using the proposed model to verify the feasibility and reliability of the dynamic multi-attribute model.

Keywords

• risk control options
• risk decision model
• multi-attribute assessment
• as low as reasonable and practicable
• grey rational analysis