A fuzzy data envelopment analysis based on credibility theory for estimating road safety

Abstract

Road accidents as a global challenge, imposing irreparable financial and human life losses in almost all countries, especially in developing countries, annually. According to world health organization (WHO), if this trend continues, road accidents will become the 7th cause of human death by 2030. Thus, road safety policy makers have been trying to use safety promotion and preventative actions. In this paper, the road safety performance of Iranian provinces is studied. To evaluate road safety efficiency scores, data envelopment analysis based on road safety (DEA-RS) method in two deterministic and non-deterministic situations is used. To consider the uncertainty in input and output data, this paper develops credibility DEA-RS (CreDEA-RS) model. In fact, the constraints of DEA-RS model are considered as credibility constraints and a counterpart credibility DEA-RS (CreDEA-RS) model is proposed for evaluating road safety of provinces of Iran. According to the results, provinces located in mountainous and forest areas such as Gilan had a much weaker performance than provinces in desert areas such as Yazd.

Keywords

• Road safety
• Data envelopment analysis based road safety
• Fuzzy sets
• Credibility theory