Interaction-Aware Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction of Cut-In Vehicles Using Gaussian Process for Proactive Control of Autonomous Vehicles

Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic trajectory prediction of cut-in vehicles exploiting the information of interacting vehicles. First, a probability distribution of behavioral parameters, which represents the characteristics of lane-change motion, is obtained via Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). For this purpose, Gaussian Process (GP) models are trained using real-world trajectories of lane-changing vehicles and adjacent vehicles. Subsequently, the future states of the lane-change vehicle are probabilistically estimated using a path-following model, which introduces virtual measurements based on the information of behavioral parameters. The proposed predictor is applied to the motion planning and control of autonomous vehicles. A Model Predictive Control (MPC) is designed to achieve predictive maneuvering of autonomous vehicles against cut-in preceding vehicles. The proposed predictor has been evaluated in terms of its prediction accuracy. Also, the performance of the proposed predictor-based control has been validated via computer simulations and autonomous driving vehicle tests. Compared to conventional prediction methods, it is shown that the interaction-aware proposed predictor provides improved prediction of cut-in vehicles’ motion in multi-vehicle scenarios. Furthermore, the control results indicate that the proposed predictor helps the autonomous vehicle to reduce the control effort and improve ride quality for passengers in cut-in scenarios, while guaranteeing safety.

Keywords

• Autonomous vehicle
• autonomous driving
• Gaussian process (GP)
• machine learning
• vehicle trajectory prediction
• interaction-aware motion prediction