Characterization of extreme rainfall changes and response to temperature changes in Guizhou Province, China

Abstract

Abstract Different geographical zones have regional heterogeneity in underlying earth surface structure and microclimate which result in different evolution trends and their response to climate change varies in extreme rainfalls in these zones. In the Guizhou province of China, there are complex landforms, which lead to spatial redistribution of rainfall, frequent extreme rainfall, and disasters high risk of geologic disasters. Research on extreme climate in Guizhou mostly paid attention to its spatio-temporal characteristics and modeling, but lack of analysis on its characteristics of extreme rainfall variability and response to temperature changes under different subsurface conditions. This study investigated the characteristics of the extreme rainfall spatiotemporal and recurrence periods in Guizhou province and discussed the relationship between the response of extreme rainfall to temperature change. Daily rainfall data from 1990 to 2020 and 2021–2100 at 31 meteorological observation stations throughout the province were collected to calculate extreme precipitation. This research had the following results. (1) Both historical and future periods show an upward trend in extreme rainfall in Guizhou province, with a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the south and low in the north, high in the east and low in the west” and “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”, respectively; the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall under each recurrence period is consistent with the non-recurrence period. (2) Both historical and future periods show an upward trend in temperature in Guizhou province, with a spatial distribution consistent with that of the extreme rainfall in the corresponding period. (3) The change in extreme rainfall intensity with increasing temperature is almost always greater than the C–C rate for different periods and underlying earth surface structure; Extreme rainfall has a Hook response structure to temperature change, and the climate response structure shifts to the right with climate warming. The results of the study can provide a basis for decision-making on regional disaster prevention and mitigation in the context of temperature change.

Keywords

• Extreme rainfall
• Clausius–Clapeyron
• Climate change
• Recurrence period
• CMIP6