Forecasting of Indian tourism industry using modeling approach

Abstract

Currently, India has become one of the largest economies of the world in which tourism and hospitality have significantly contributed; however, the growth rate of tourism industry has been greatly affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we have used the modeling approach to analyze and understand the growth pattern of Indian tourism industry. To achieve this, we consider the data of international tourist arrivals before and after the lockdown. The Dickey-Fuller test, AIC and BIC methods are used to obtain the best fitted model and further, the accuracy of obtained model is also analyzed. Data and forecasting indicate that the weather and public holidays significantly affect the tourism industry.

Keywords

• Autoregressive integrated moving average method.