Nature Communications (Jul 2021)

Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading

  • James S. Risbey,
  • Dougal T. Squire,
  • Amanda S. Black,
  • Timothy DelSole,
  • Chiara Lepore,
  • Richard J. Matear,
  • Didier P. Monselesan,
  • Thomas S. Moore,
  • Doug Richardson,
  • Andrew Schepen,
  • Michael K. Tippett,
  • Carly R. Tozer

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23771-z
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 12, no. 1
pp. 1 – 14

Abstract

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Many different methods have been developed to forecast climate phenomena like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which makes a fair comparison of their capabilities crucial. In this perspective, the authors discuss how choices in the evaluation method can lead to an overestimated perceived skill of ENSO forecasts.