The influence of world oil prices on the Chinese Yuan exchange rate

Abstract

This article aims to find out if and if any influence the evolution of oil price on the world market influences the value of the Chinese currency. Data, which we used for analysis, is available on the World Bank website. The analysis uses data about the Chinese Yuan (CNY) to the US Dollar (USD). The second series of data is the Brent crude oil price expressed in US Dollars per barrel. The time interval for which data will be available is the daily closing value of both variables, beginning on September 1, 2014, and ending on August 30, 2019. To accomplish our research aim, we must conduct an experiment. Therefore, the experiment assumes a uniform procedure with a gradual change of one parameter, namely the delay of the CNY / USD time series. Regression is performed using neural structures. We generate 10,000 neural networks for every single experiment combination (time delay, set of independent variables). As a result, we perform 10 calculations and get ten different outputs. From each experiment, we always preserve 5 artificial neural networks that show the best aspects. It could be estimated that fluctuations in oil prices on world markets would affect the CNY / USD price; however, it was not clear to what extent. Based on this paper, we demonstrate that such influence exists; it can be identified at an interval of 1.97% to 9.57%. This is a very significant influence, even regarding the importance of the raw material.