Drought Severity and Trends in a Mediterranean Oak Forest

Abstract

Drought is a significant natural hazard with widespread socioeconomic and environmental impacts. This study investigated the long-term drought characteristics in a Mediterranean oak forest ecosystem using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at various time scales and seasons. The analysis was based on a long-term time series dataset obtained from a meteorological station located at the University Forest of Taxiarchis in Greece. The dataset encompassed a substantial time span of 47 years of continuous monitoring, from 1974 to 2020. To accomplish the goals of the current research, the SPEI was calculated for 3, 6, 12, and 24-month periods, and drought events were identified. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test was used to analyze the trends in drought severity and evaluate the trends significance. The results showed that shorter time scales (SPEI3 and SPEI6) were more efficient for identifying short-term droughts, while longer time scales (SPEI12 and SPEI24) were better for identifying less frequent but longer-lasting drought episodes. The analysis consistently revealed positive trends across all seasons and time scales, indicating an overall transition towards wetter conditions. Nearly all the data series for SPEI12 and SPEI24 exhibited statistically significant upward trends (wetter conditions) at a 95% confidence level. However, more intense events were detected during the recent decade using the seasonal analysis. Additionally, as the time scale expanded, the magnitude of these trends increased. The findings contributed to a better understanding of drought dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests and provided valuable information for forest management and climate change adaptation planning.

Keywords

• drought
• SPEI
• trend analysis
• Mann-Kendall
• forest meteorological station