Effects of emerging SARS-CoV-2 on total and cause-specific maternal mortality: A natural experiment in Chile during the peak of the outbreak, 2020-2021.

Abstract

This study estimated the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal mortality in Chile between 2020 and 2021. A natural experiment was conducted using official data on maternal deaths and live births (LBs) between 1997 and 2021. The effects of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak were evaluated using interrupted time series (ITS) and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast the expected rates on MMR and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). In Chile, following World Health Organization suggestions, maternal deaths aggravated by SARS-CoV-2 are assigned to code O98.5 (non-respiratory infectious indirect) accompanied by code U07.1 or U07.2, depending on confirmation of the presence or absence of the virus. ITS analysis revealed that the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak impacted the MMR due to indirect causes, with a greater increase in indirect nonrespiratory causes than respiratory causes. The ARIMA forecast was consistent with ITS, showing that the expected MMR for indirect causes (3.44 in 2020 and 1.55 in 2021) was substantially lower than the observed rates (9.65 in 2020 and 7.46/100.000 LBs in 2021). For nonrespiratory indirect causes, the observed values of the MMR for 2020 (8.77/100.000 LBs) and 2021 (7.46/100.000 LBs) were double the predicted values of 4.02 (95% CI: 0.44-7.61) and 3.83 (95% CI: -0.12-7.79), respectively. A lower effect was observed on direct obstetrical deaths. During 2020-2021, there was a rise in the MMR in Chile attributable to SARS-CoV-2. The pandemic contributed to an escalation in the MMR due to indirect causes, particularly nonrespiratory and infectious causes. MMR due to direct obstetric causes were less affected. This suggests that the pandemic disproportionately affected maternal health by exacerbating conditions unrelated to pregnancy, childbirth, or postpartum, more than those directly linked to obstetric complications.