Predicting phenology of European beech in forest habitats

Abstract

Reliable phenological observations are important for studying the response of trees to climate and climate change. National phenological networks were not specifically established to monitor tree phenology within forests, yet they are often used to generalise tree phenological phases at national or regional scales. Our objective was to investigate whether a phenological monitoring network using trees in open areas can accurately predict phenology of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) located within forests by using two models: one with correlates of environmental variables and one with interpolated monthly air temperature and sun hours. The first leaf unfolding, general leaf colouring and leaf fall dates from 2004 through 2010 were modelled using data from 47 Slovene National Phenology Network (NPN) stations in open areas and tested on phenological observations within forests using data from the UNECE CRLTAP ICP Forests network. Good agreement was found between predicted and observed first leaf unfolding in the forest, while slightly lower agreement was detected for general leaf colouring and leaf fall. Suggestions for the improvement of national phenological network are discussed in order to better predict beech phenology in forest habitats.

Keywords

• Leaf Unfolding
• Leaf Colouring
• Leaf Fall
• Modelling
• Fagus sylvatica
• Slovene National Phenology Network
• ICP Forests