Performance of International Global Models and Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Over the Bien Dong Sea for the Period 2012–2019

Abstract

This research validates tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting of Vietnam, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo, and global models (the Japanese Meteorological Agency [JMA], global spectral model [GSM], the National Centers for Environmental Prediction [NCEP], Global Forecast System [GFS], and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF] Integrated Forecasting System [IFS]) for 72 activated TCs over the Bien Dong Sea. The best quality track forecasts come from the IFS and then GFS and GSM, while the GFS provides a good intensity forecast compared to IFS and GSM. The official guidance and model track forecast tend to be slower and leftward compared to observations (negative biases of along and cross-track errors). Regarding the ECMWF’s ensemble track forecast, the strike probability forecast is quite overforecast/overconfident, especially for a lead time of 72 h and at high probabilities.