Medium and Long-term Sales Forecast of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCV) Based on System Dynamics and Discrete Selection Model

Abstract

Developing hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is an important direction for the transformation and upgrading of automobile industry, but its current development is not clear yet. This paper uses a discrete selection model and a system dynamics model to analyze the key factors affecting the sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and analyze the vehicle purchasing behavior of consumers. The medium and long-term sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is predicted in various typical scenarios. The forecast results show that the government subsidies and changes in the number of hydrogen refueling stations have a great influence on the medium and long-term sales of hydrogen fuel cells. The energy prices and the breakthrough in the core technologies of key components also have a certain influence on future sales.