Development and validation of a nomogram for Siewert II esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma: a retrospective analysis

Abstract

Background: Due to the complex histological type and anatomical structures, there has been considerable debate on the classification of adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG), especially Siewert II AEG. Furthermore, neither the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) [esophageal adenocarcinoma (E) or gastric cancer (G)] nor the AJCC 8th TNM (E or G) accurately predicted the prognosis of patients with Siewert II AEG. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the factors influencing the survival and prognosis of patients with Siewert II AEG and establish a new and better prognostic predictive model. Design: A retrospective study. Methods: Patients with Siewert II AEG, retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) databases, were assigned to the training set. Patients retrieved from a single tertiary medical center were assigned to the external validation set. Significant variables were selected using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to construct the nomogram. Nomogram models were assessed using the concordance index (C-index), a calibration plot, decision curve analysis (DCA), and external validation. Results: Age, tumor grade, and size, as well as the T, N, and M stages, were included in the nomograms. For the SEER training set, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.683 (0.665–0.701). The C-index of the nomogram for the external validation set was 0.690 (0.653–0.727). The calibration curve showed good agreement between the nomogram estimations and actual observations in both the training and external validation sets. The DCA showed that the nomogram was clinically useful. Conclusion: The new predictive model showed significant accuracy in predicting the prognosis of Siewert II AEG.